Economists predict another big hit but the GDP drop will not be so severe, not least because it has less far to fall

It goes without saying that the lockdown restrictions due to come into force in England represent a serious setback for the economy. This, after all, is deja vu time, and back in the spring during lockdown 1 activity collapsed. Between February and April gross domestic product fell by a quarter.

So when a Whitehall insider says “it’s going to be bad” in response to a question about the likely impact of the lockdown, that’s a statement of the blindingly obvious. What’s at issue is just how bad.

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